Analysis of the current situation of China's iron ore demand in 2026 [Photos]

The following data and analysis come from the "Global and China Iron Ore Industry Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Iron Ore Research Group of the Prospective Industry Research Institute

Major listed companies in the industry: Hainan Mining (601969), Jinling Mining (000655), Dazhong Mining (001203), etc.

Core data of this article: apparent iron ore consumption in China; external dependence of China on iron ore; size of China's iron ore market

Iron ore market characteristics

China's iron ore industry has strong regional and cyclical characteristics. The regional nature is mainly reflected in the fact that its output is mainly concentrated in North China. The output concentration of the top three provinces exceeds 60%, and the output concentration of the top ten provinces exceeds 90%, which is high.

The cyclical nature is mainly due to the strong correlation between the iron ore industry and the mining and steel markets. On the one hand, the cyclical fluctuations of iron ore are related to mine capital expenditures. On the other hand, the iron ore industry is mainly affected by the supply and demand of the steel market. The steel market is obviously cyclical, with supply and demand as the core driving force of the market alternating. The demand-side performance of iron ore is the supply-side performance of steel, and the relationship between the two is closely connected, so the logic of supply and demand is opposite; at the same time, although the iron ore industry itself is not affected by the season, it will be indirectly affected by policies and weather., for example, the weather will affect the shipment of overseas mines, thus affecting the shipment of iron ore.

Apparent consumption of iron ore: approximately 1.296 billion tons in 2025

Steel companies are the ultimate consumers of iron ore, and the distribution of steel production capacity determines the iron ore consumption pattern. Judging from the situation over the years, my country's iron ore demand has gradually increased. Based on a rough calculation of 1.55 tons of iron ore per ton of pig iron, my country's pig iron output in 2025 will be 836 million tons, and iron ore consumption will reach 1.296 billion tons, continuing the downward trend.

Domestic iron ore market size: approximately US$131.9 billion in 2025

The average price of iron ore in China in 2025 will be approximately US$101.8/ton. Combined with China's iron ore consumption in 2025, preliminary statistics show that the market size of China's iron ore industry in 2025 will be approximately US$131.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%.

External dependence on iron ore: approximately 75.9% in 2025

Combined with China's iron ore production and consumption in recent years, preliminary statistics show that China's iron ore dependence on foreign countries in 2025 will be approximately 75.9%, down 3 percentage points from 2024. Overall, from 2021 to 2025, China's dependence on iron ore on foreign countries will decline.

Note: The calculation formula in the above table is domestic iron ore output/apparent domestic iron ore consumption. The higher the value, the lower the dependence on imports.

Analysis of pain points in iron ore market development

The main constraints on the development of China's iron ore industry are constraints on domestic production, mainly manifested in the constraints of environment and resources; at the same time, the structural imbalance of the domestic iron ore industry is mainly manifested in the large import volume, high proportion and concentrated sources and high dependence on foreign countries; in terms of price, due to the weak international competitiveness of China's iron ore market, imported iron ore is subject to the high monopoly of the four major mines, and pricing power is seriously lacking, and domestic iron ore prices fluctuate violently.

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Global and China Iron Ore Industry Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by the Prospective Industry Research Institute

At the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment, industrial maps, smart investment promotion systems, industry status certification, IPO consultation/fundraising feasibility study, and IPO working paper consultation. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and company annual report, formal authorization from the Prospective Industry Research Institute is required.

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Prospective Industry Research Institute-In-depth Report REPORTS

If you quote the data of this article in the prospectus or the company's annual report, please contact the Prospective Industry Research Institute at 400-068-7188.

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